6.2.8 Forward-looking information incorporated in the ECL Models

Forward-looking information incorporated in the ECL Models

The assessment of SICR and the calculation of ECL both incorporate forward-looking information. The Group has performed historical analysis and identified the key economic variables impacting credit risk and expected credit losses for each portfolio. These economic variables and their associated impact on the PD, EAD and LGD vary by financial instrument. Expert judgement has also been applied in this process. Forecasts of these economic variables (the “base economic scenario”) are updated from the World economic outlook: UAE country data and other reliable sources which provide the best estimate view of the economy over the next five years. After five years, to project the economic variables out for the full remaining lifetime of each instrument, a mean reversion approach has been used, which means that economic variables tend to either a long run average rate (e.g. for unemployment) or a long run average growth rate (e.g. GDP) over a period of two to five years. The impact of these economic variables on the level of expected credit loss has been determined by performing statistical analysis to understand the impact changes in these variables have had historically on default rates.

In addition to the base economic scenario, the Group’s Credit risk team also provide other possible scenarios along with scenario weightings. The number of other scenarios used is set based on the analysis of each major product type to ensure plausible events are captured. The number of scenarios and their attributes are reassessed at each reporting date. At 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2020, for all portfolios the Group concluded that three scenarios representing the Downturn, Normal and Growth cases have been determined appropriate for capturing forward looking component in ECL. The scenario weightings are determined by a combination of statistical analysis and expert credit judgement, taking account of the range of possible outcomes each chosen scenario is representative of. The weightings assigned to each macro-economic scenario as at 31 December 2020, is as per the below table:

The assessment of SICR is performed based on credit risk assessment following UAECB rules and management assessment under each of the base, and the other scenarios, multiplied by the associated scenario weightings. This determines whether the whole financial instrument is in Stage 1, Stage 2, or Stage 3 and hence whether 12-month or lifetime ECL should be recorded. Following this assessment, the Group measures ECL as either a 12 month ECL (Stage 1), or lifetime ECL (Stage 2). These ECLs are determined by running each scenario through the relevant ECL model and multiplying it by the appropriate scenario weighting (as opposed to weighting the inputs).

As with any economic forecasts, the projections and likelihoods of occurrence are subject to a high degree of inherent uncertainty and therefore the actual outcomes may be significantly different to those projected. The Group considers these forecasts to represent its best estimate of the possible outcomes.

The assessment of the macroeconomic indicators and their impact on PD, EAD and LGD are computed on a quarterly basis and provide the best estimate view of the economy over the next ten years i.e. ‘Macro Economy Scenario’ for next ten years. The impact of these economic variables on the PD, EAD and LGD has been determined by performing statistical regression analysis to understand the impact changes in these variables have had historically on default rates and on the components of LGD and EAD.

Economic variable assumptions

The most significant period-end assumption used for the ECL estimate as at 31 December 2020 was Oil prices (Oil price 2021: $57.65/Barrel, 2022: $54.71/ Barrel).